Grant ID: K-1
Grant Year: Year 1
Grant Title: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Approved Grant Amount: $1150000.00
Product Line and P-Code: ASA, P146704
TTLs: Marianne Fay
Grant Start/Completion: 09/12, 2013 – 06/30, 2017
Robust Decision Making (RDM) is a state-of-the-art method for making sound investment and planning decisions in the face of uncertainties, such as climate, economic conditions, population, technology, and regulations. Used extensively in many countries—for instance, in making water and energy investment decisions—RDM uses new analytical tools to help stakeholders understand investment options and evaluate future scenarios. The multi-year program investigates new decision-making methodologies addressing climate change risks and uncertainties, and applies the methods in pilot programs. The pilots will test and validate the decision-making tools for possible use in appropriate KGGTF-supported investment programs.
List of Activities
Helping Peru to make robust water management decisions to cope with these deep climate and development uncertainties
Presenting a valuable opportunity for tailoring and applying new methodologies for making robust decisions
Testing and validating the decision-making tools for possible use in appropriate KGGTF-supported investment programs
Outputs and Outcomes
A qualitative application of RDM would have a number of valuable outcomes, such as improving the “robustness” of the decision-making by water utilities, better equipping water utilities to more effectively use quantitative models in the future to make investment decisions, and piloting a qualitative version of robust decision making, which has been discussed but not yet implemented in practice. This project also has the potential to show how such analyses can guide future investments in new models and data collection. A qualitative assessment of SEDAPAL’s plans will help hone in on the key uncertainties that drive SEDAPAL’s investment decisions and that must therefore be managed. This knowledge can help guide SEDAPAL in investing its limited resources in model development and data gathering that add the most value to SEDAPAL’s planning processes.
Collaboration with K-Partners and Others
Importantly, this project operationalizes the extensive work recently undertaken by the Bank with funding from Korea's Global Green Growth Institute to demonstrate how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies in the face of such deep uncertainty. Furthermore, the Wetland Management Planning pilot would draw heavily on the existing formal collaboration between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Korean Research Institute for Human Settlements.